Looking Into My Crystal Ball – A Prediction of Future Pricing Trends

The following charts and table contains units of homes on the MLS concerning North Scottsdale Real Estate, which is comprised of zip codes: 85258, 85260, 85255, 85254, 85259, 85262. All information is specific to 6/3/2010 and is pulled from ARMLS’ Home Listings Database.

Based our previous blog in which on our analysis of North Scottsdale Real Estate sales data over the last 10 years we developed the hypothesis that we can predict future sales prices by looking at the total unit sales trends. As unit sales increase, prices increase as well; however, they lag behind slightly.

Looking at the trends of the last five months we see that the average sales prices for each month have remained apparently leveled out for the last four months. The number of units that have closed also appear relatively flat. What’s interesting is that the number of homes pending has apparently spiked slightly in the last 2 months. The First Time Home Buyer or Move Up Repeat Tax Credit undoubtedly account for most of that since it is equity sales that are on the rise while short sales and REOs have dropped. Short sales and REO’s will most likely be challenging to close before the tax credit deadline of the end of June.

My prediction is that prices at the end of June and July will be up. Time will, naturally, tell.

Here are the charts to back my North Scottsdale Real Estate assertions.

Here are the statistics behind these tables and beyond…

ACTIVE – All Home Types
Sale Type		4/2/10	5/3/10	6/1/10
All		3614	3411	3286
Regular		2540	2390	2265
Short Sale		840	819	804
Short Sale AWC		352	364	389
REO		235	203	219
PENDING – All Home Types
Sale Type	4/2/10		5/3/10	6/1/10
All	652		731	673
Regular	282		357	327
Short Sale	224		218	223
REO	147		157	124
CLOSED – All Home Types					1 YEAR COMPARISON
	Mar-10		Apr-10	May-10	Mar-09	Apr-09	May-09
All	493		468	483	262	332	361
Avg ALL Price	$466,848		$458,180	$472,238	$544,531	$525,486	$506,004
Equity	286		244	274	140	179	196
Avg Equity $	$565,882		$575,566	$570,976	$696,507	$661,355	$610,241
Short Sale	82		110	101	37	43	51
Avg ShrtSl $	$331,579		$360,326	$359,054	$437,036	$429,219	$419,822
REO	125		114	107	82	107	114
Avg REO $	$328,995		$312,200	$328,376	$338,190	$344,597	$365,344
CLOSED – Single Family					1 YEAR COMPARISON
	Mar-10		Apr-10	May-10	Mar-09	Apr-09	May-09
All	342		313	323	193	228	269
Avg ALL $	$573,612		$572,142	$590,136	$650,020	$636,193	$585,978
Equity	210		168	192	98	120	145
Avg Equity $	$662,031		$700,490	$685,176	$688,812	$803,640	$701,443
Short Sale	54		79	69	31	29	39
Avg ShrtSl $	$418,730		$433,059	$441,412	$482,950	$537,897	$492,267
REO	78		66	61	61	76	85
Avg REO $	$442,785		$411,916	$464,920	$398,042	$424,547	$432,005
Closed – Condo/Townhouse					1 YEAR COMPARISON
	Mar-10		Apr-10	May-10	Mar-09	Apr-09	May-09
All	151		155	160	69	104	92
Avg ALL $	$225,039		$228,050	$234,230	$249,468	$282,783	$272,168
Equity	76		76	82	42	59	51
Avg Equity $	$300,207		$299,420	$303,582	$299,129	$371,961	$350,944
Short Sale	28		31	32	6	14	12
Avg ShrtSl $	$163,504		$174,973	$181,472	$199,817	$204,100	$184,375
REO	47		48	46	21	31	29
Avg REO $	$140,152		$149,326	$147,305	$164,334	$148,592	$169,959

What are your predictions or thoughts about ours regarding the next few months in the North Scottsdale Real Estate market? Leave a comment below and let us know.

Tagged as: North Scottsdale Foreclosure, North Scottsdale Home Sales, North Scottsdale Market Statistics, North Scottsdale Real Estate, North Scottsdale Real Estate Market, North Scottsdale Short Sale, North Scottsdale Trends, Real Estate Market Statistics, Real Estate Market Trends, Real Estate Trends, Scottsdale Foreclosure, Scottsdale REO, Scottsdale Short Sale, The Precision Team